From: Ben Goertzel (ben@webmind.com)
Date: Sun Jul 29 2001 - 08:01:40 MDT
> The ONLY point that I've been trying to make (and I'm getting tired of
> trying) is that to be completely realistic, no one can truly
> estimate when
> the first general AI will be completed because we don't know exactly what
> that is. It would be like saying we're going to have flight within 20
> years pre Wright brothers. The 2010-2030 time frame is based on
> predicting
> computer hardware because we don't have enough information about the
> software to make a prediction.
Sure, it's hard to argue with that: we don't *know*
My own optimism is not based on any estimates about hardware; it's based on
my belief that my own AI design is basically right. I think current
hardware is good enough, and the obstacle is our understanding of how to
build intelligent software.
ben
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