From: Paul (psiphius@yahoo.com)
Date: Thu Feb 28 2002 - 17:42:52 MST
--- Max <mcomess@ucla.edu> wrote:
> I'm just curious so I thought I'd aSk the list:
>
> When do you think the singularity will occur. IMHO I
> think it will be 5-10
> years...
> I mean, what would you do with a ~1Pflops
> computer???
This is where I disagree with most on the list. 5-10
years is quite a stretch. The problem is not one of
pure speed, but of scaling and many other complexity
factors. We could be given a computer today capable
of running at a ZetaFlop, and I doubt anyone on the
planet could coax it to come even close to anything
resembling human-equivalent sentience.
However, with combinations of both speed, a
sufficiently comprehensive cognitive science and
software complexity we could see human sentience
exceeded as early as 2020.
Paul Hughes
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Greetings - Send FREE e-cards for every occasion!
http://greetings.yahoo.com
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Wed Jul 17 2013 - 04:00:37 MDT