From: Ben Goertzel (ben@goertzel.org)
Date: Sun Apr 14 2002 - 12:27:07 MDT
> > I think that your confidence is primarily not based on objective factors
> >
> And your evaluations are?
No, mine are not either. As I said clearly in a previous post, I think that
there is not available data to make rational judgments on such things.
> I believe the opposite, for the same reason. You still haven't
> addressed my
> example of computer viruses that I mentioned in an earlier
> posting. By your
> logic, there should be an increasing probability of some computer virus
> wiping out the Internet. But despite the fact that more people
> are writing
> them than ever before, and their spread is much easier than it was even 5
> years ago, the damage they do is proportionately less than it was
> beck when
> Robert Morris sent out his Internet worm. How do you explain that?
>
> I explain it by saying that increased technological sophistication allows
> for greater abilities to deal with threats. Yes, the power of individuals
> to do harm grows, but the power of the system as a whole to respond grows
> faster. AS long as knowledge about these threats - including nanotech,
> biotech, software etc. - is not bottled up, then I do not see why the same
> logic should not apply to these threats as it does to that of viruses.
I think our ability to rewrite computer systems to defend against threats
has increased FASTER than our ability to rewrite biological systems to
defend against threats is likely to.
ben
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