From: Martin Striz (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Date: Thu Dec 09 2004 - 07:44:43 MST
--- Marc Geddes <email@example.com> wrote:
> In fact, I think only FAI will be able to get a real
> handle on aging. The human body is an enormously
> complex system and the hoped for anti-aging methods so
> far have proved to be nothing but hype. In fact most
> of the drugs developed by drug companies today
> actually have side-effects just as bad as the original
> condition they fix. That's the thing with the human
> body: a large number of different systems requiring
> very precise methods to fix.
The problem with the human body is pleiotropy.
> Lack of precision in
> treatments leads to side-effects which shorten life
> more than the treatment lengthens life. Then there is
> the problem of balances. Altering one part of the
> human body system can create an imbalance else where.
> In short, aging is one hell of a problem. I wouldn't
> put my hopes on cryonics or vitrification either.
> FAI's still your best bet for a fix over the longer
But FAI has also thus far proven to be nothing but hype, so on what do you base
your assessment? I'm not trying to be an asshole; I'm just trying to ask an
honest question. AI research itself has had a poor track record, so why do you
assume future AI research will be more prodigious than future nanotech,
cryonics, biomedical research, etc.?
> Those of you who have been following my posts know, of
> course, that I'm not as optimistic about the
> time-frame for FAI as Sing Inst enthusiasts. I still
> see FAI as being 15-30 years away at the earliest.
> Looking at the 30 years or less time frame, then it
> might be better to pursue options like cryonics,
> bio-medical life extension avenues etc.
> The one thing I'm reasonably sure about is this: if
> we don't get FAI before 2045 or so, then, to borrow a
> phrase from Damian Broderick's 'The Spike': '"We will
> all perish most horribly"
Or nothing will happen, but people will keep dying.
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