Re: Bad Bayesian - no biscuit! (was A New Year's gift for Bayesians)

From: David Clark (clarkd@rccconsulting.com)
Date: Wed Jan 19 2005 - 16:39:07 MST


----- Original Message -----
From: "Eliezer Yudkowsky" <sentience@pobox.com>
To: "ExI chat list" <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Cc: <sl4@sl4.org>
Sent: Wednesday, January 19, 2005 1:24 PM
Subject: Re: Bad Bayesian - no biscuit! (was A New Year's gift for
Bayesians)

> Occasionally I tread on the futile task of trying to persuade people not
to
> buy lottery tickets, and they say something along the line of "Someone has
> to win!" or "You can't win if you don't play!" To which the answer is,
> "'Someone' will not be you. You will not win the lottery, period.

I have used the exact same line on many people but they just don't seem to
*get* it. Personally, I am the only person I know who has *never* bought
any kind of lottery ticket and I am almost 50 years old. I never could
understand the mentality of people who find enjoyment (worth paying for) in
giving their money away for nothing.

PS I have passed through Las Vegas at least 5 times and have never gambled
even a nickel. Life is enough of a gamble for me, I don't need additional
exposure.

-- David Clark



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