From: Ben Goertzel (ben@goertzel.org)
Date: Sat Dec 03 2005 - 15:01:09 MST
>
> But do note, that the odds greatly favor some organization
> like the NSA, the Pentagon, or a major computer/software
> manufacturer in the race to the first SEED AI, and thus
> to rampant intelligence development.
I'm not sure what reasoning you base this on.
IMO, seed AI is only likely to be created by one of these
organizations only if the major insights required for creating seed AI
are made by academic researchers, who then publish their results,
which are then taken up and exploited by large organizations such as
the ones you mentioned.
Large organizations like these are famously poor at radical
innovation, but are well poised to make large-scale implementation of
already-published ideas (or small variations on such).
Since academic/corporate AI these days is so strongly opposed to AGI
research, my guess is that *if* there is an AGI breakthrough in the
next 10-15 years, it will come from outside the academic/corporate
mainstream -- perhaps by some small startup company, or else an
independent researcher or a non-government-funded academic at a
low-prestige university.
On the other hand, if there is no maverick breakthrough like this,
then eventually the academic mainstream will come around, and in 20-40
years powerful AGI results will be published by academics and picked
up on by large institutions, and your prediction will come true...
-- Ben G
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