Re: The influence of skeptics [WAS Re: no more lottery talk]

From: Damien Broderick (thespike@satx.rr.com)
Date: Mon Jan 02 2006 - 12:26:06 MST


At 01:42 PM 1/2/2006 -0500, Jeff wrote:

>It isn't that positive and negative (i.e., any) results are
>interpreted as support. Richard is claiming specifically that:
>
>- Believers in such experiments have consistently positive results
>- Skeptics in such experiments have consistently negative results

Not even that clear-cut, alas. More like:

- Believers in such experiments have, in the long run, significantly
positive results
- Skeptics in such experiments have, in the long run, significantly
negative results

Not (note well): Skeptics in such experiments have null or chance results

We're dealing with humans, and human performance fluctuates--but does tend
to be predictable in the mass and the long run.

Damien Broderick



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