From: Dani Eder (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Date: Sun Jan 22 2006 - 04:57:44 MST
My simple story for potential investors:
The human brain has 100 billion neurons, each with
synapses firing at an average of 100 Hz, for a total
firing rate of 100 x 10^15/sec.
A modern CPU chip (Athlon 64 X2 4800+, 2.4 GHz) has
each processing an average of 1.5 calculations/cycle x
This gives a bit rate of 460 x 10^9.
There is some question about how much data a synapse
equates to, but assume 1 bit/synapse firing for now.
it would take 217,000 of these CPU chips to equate to
The most powerful computer in the world (Blue Gene-L)
40% fewer CPU chips, and they are each 39% as powerful
Athlon above, for a total of about 1/4 of the required
So the failure of AI to date can be explained by the
Special purpose AI accelerator chips, similar to
accelerator ships, may buy you a factor of
10 improvement. Clever programming may buy you
factor of 10, and the expected improvement in
in the next 5 years will get you another factor of 5.
This would bring the number of blade servers required
to ~430, which is a reasonably small number. So an
in accelerator chip design and AI programming, coupled
the expected improvement in computers overall, could
true AI in 5 years.
DRN (I've previously signed my messages 'Daniel', but
Daniel Radetsky signs his messages the same way. To
avoid confusion I'm now using the initials of my
re-enactment persona 'Daniel of Raven's Nest', which
where my email address comes from. Dani Eder is my
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