From: Richard Loosemore (email@example.com)
Date: Sun Jan 22 2006 - 19:18:02 MST
There is only one problem with your story: I very much fear that it is
not true that if we got brain-power hardware, we would get an AI.
If you gave Microsoft a set of four Blue Gene-L machines, they *still*
would not be able to deliver a bug-free version of Word any time in the
We probably have the hardware power right now. What we lack are the
right theoretical approach and software techniques. More particularly,
I think we lack the right software-construction tools.
You might respond that it does neverthless make a compact story to give
to an investor: I'm not sure, though, because I think they know,
intuitively, that it has a false ring to it.
Dani Eder wrote:
> My simple story for potential investors:
> The human brain has 100 billion neurons, each with
> synapses firing at an average of 100 Hz, for a total
> firing rate of 100 x 10^15/sec.
> A modern CPU chip (Athlon 64 X2 4800+, 2.4 GHz) has
> two cores
> each processing an average of 1.5 calculations/cycle x
> 64 bits.
> This gives a bit rate of 460 x 10^9.
> There is some question about how much data a synapse
> equates to, but assume 1 bit/synapse firing for now.
> it would take 217,000 of these CPU chips to equate to
> a human
> The most powerful computer in the world (Blue Gene-L)
> 40% fewer CPU chips, and they are each 39% as powerful
> as the
> Athlon above, for a total of about 1/4 of the required
> So the failure of AI to date can be explained by the
> lack of
> adequate hardware.
> Special purpose AI accelerator chips, similar to
> accelerator ships, may buy you a factor of
> 10 improvement. Clever programming may buy you
> factor of 10, and the expected improvement in
> in the next 5 years will get you another factor of 5.
> This would bring the number of blade servers required
> to ~430, which is a reasonably small number. So an
> in accelerator chip design and AI programming, coupled
> the expected improvement in computers overall, could
> true AI in 5 years.
> DRN (I've previously signed my messages 'Daniel', but
> Daniel Radetsky signs his messages the same way. To
> avoid confusion I'm now using the initials of my
> re-enactment persona 'Daniel of Raven's Nest', which
> where my email address comes from. Dani Eder is my
> world name)
> Do You Yahoo!?
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