Re: Fun with Experimental Design [WAS: Re: The Conjunction Fallacy Fallacy]

From: Randall Randall (randall@randallsquared.com)
Date: Tue May 09 2006 - 14:51:41 MDT


On May 9, 2006, at 1:12 PM, Chris Capel wrote:

> On 5/8/06, Michael Vassar <michaelvassar@hotmail.com> wrote:
>> For the information of Charles and others, with respect to the
>> updating of
>> beliefs, though not actions, it seems to me that I have met a
>> grand total of
>> four people rational enough that they don't have a strong expectation
>> regarding the direction of disagreement after communicating that
>> disagreement.
>
> This is quite interesting, but I don't understand what you mean by
> "direction of disagreement". Could you rephrase?

That means that after the reevaluation of each person's position,
neither will know whether they or the other is closer to their
original position.

--
Randall Randall <randall@randallsquared.com>
"Part of it may be that in the olden days, when the worst thing the  
writers had ever
faced was the Great Depression and World War Two, it was easier to be  
upbeat about
the future's potential, whereas now, when we are saddled with enough  
conventional
fuels to last us centuries, monstrously bloated incomes and the  
dilemma of which of
500 channels to watch, spotting any ray of light seems impossible. "  
-- James Nicoll


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