From: Philip Goetz (philgoetz@gmail.com)
Date: Fri May 12 2006 - 12:07:26 MDT
On 5/12/06, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky <sentience@pobox.com> wrote:
> Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
> Actually, there's a third case, where you know A, you're asked about C,
> and you reply with a low probability. Then you're asked about A&B&C,
> where B obviously follows with high probability from A, and C obviously
> follows with high probability from B, but B itself is cognitively
> expensive to find. Then you may reply with a higher probability for the
> entire chain A&B&C while also updating your probability of C.
For instance, if I tell people about a woman who could ring
the bell at the top of the "Test your strength" pole at the carnival,
they typically don't believe me. When I add that she was a
professional female bodybuilder, they believe me.
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