Re: What's going on this decade?

From: J. Andrew Rogers (
Date: Sat Aug 12 2006 - 01:15:22 MDT

On Aug 11, 2006, at 7:49 PM, Michael Vassar wrote:
> Finland definitely, but what actual effective tech has come out of
> Singapore?

Singapore has some narrow competencies in biotech. But then they
have been investing heavily in that for years.

The US still dominates most research of interest to this list, due to
a very large population (third largest in the world after India), a
robust and massive economy (25-30% of global total), and the majority
of good universities. For any timeline less than 10-20 years, the US
is a safe bet for technological development. Most of the countries
that have the capability for interesting counterpoint have vastly
smaller populations and economies -- a natural disadvantage. As a
poignant example, the capitalization of the greater Silicon Valley
region of the US, a small region 100km on its long axis, is on par
with the major economies of Europe. And the US has more than just
Silicon Valley producing significant technological output.

As a pragmatic matter, if there is a technology that one thinks
requires significant capitalization to develop, the safe bet is that
it will be developed in the US. To the casual outside observer of
Silicon Valley, a boring suburban city, it is hard to imagine just
how much capital and technical capability it wields. The place does
not look like much, but it is a potent focus of human ingenuity. As
much as I do not have any particular affection for the place, I fully
recognize that nowhere else on the planet is remotely its equal at
this time.

That said, I do not think AGI requires particularly substantial
capital investment, though in most parts of the world an
"insubstantial" investment would be hard to come by.


J. Andrew Rogers

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