Simulation argument and Occam's razor

From: P K (kpete1@hotmail.com)
Date: Tue Aug 28 2007 - 22:56:23 MDT


As you read this E-mail there might be a sentient, invisible, inaudible
ghost dragon behind you watching your every move but there is no way for you
to detect it(by definition). What should you do about the possibility of
that dragon being there? What if that dragon has the power at any moment to
become corporeal and bite your head off? Maybe you should pray to it to
appease it. Maybe you should plead with it for your life. Maybe you should
start freaking out right about now... or maybe this whole dragon stuff is
nonsense.

If dragon is there, things are they way they are now.
If dragon is NOT there, things are the way they are now.

Hmmm... you have no way of knowing if dragon is there but maybe you should
somehow prepare for the dragon just in case he is there.

                                   ,----------------> pray to it ------> you
live
If dragon is there----------<
                                   '-----------------> do nothing ---> you
die

                                   ,----------------> pray to it ------->you
live and slightly inconvenienced
If dragon is NOT there--<
                                   '----------------> do nothing -----> you
live

Wouldn't it be better to pray to the dragon and be slightly inconvenienced
than to risk dying?

Wait a minute... why did I assume that praying to the dragon would spare
you? Maybe it's the kind of dragon that acts the opposite of how you would
expect a dragon to act. Maybe he gets really pissed if you act like he is
there and bites your head off but if you do nothing he leaves. It's not like
I'm an expert on dragon psychology. This changes everything!

                                   ,----------------> pray to it ------> you
die
If dragon is there----------<
                                   '-----------------> do nothing ---> you
live

                                   ,----------------> pray to it ------->you
live and slightly inconvenienced
If dragon is NOT there--<
                                   '----------------> do nothing -----> you
live

Well thats weird. The top part inverted itself. There is no reason to assume
either of the scenarios is more likely. It's like the top part cancels out.
All you are left with is the bottom part. Conclusion: do nothing.

OK so there is nothing you can do about those undetectable dragons, giant
squids or the Flying Spagheti Monster because by definition you don't know
if they are there. You don't know which one is there. And you don't know
anything about the one there. How can you know in which way you should act?
For every situation beyond your senses there could be the opposite situation
with the opposite effect of acting in a certain way. There is no point in
assuming things are there without evidence. Might as well just go with the
simplest explanations that still allows you to predict what will and won't
happen.

Wait a minute... what if we are all in a computer simulation? If we are in a
simulation we have no reason to assume that any of the rules inside this
simulation carry over to the outside world. We don't know anything about
this outside world or even if it's there because by definition we cannot
detect it. Maybe instead of the simulation there is an undetectable dragon
that gets really pissed off at people who keep talking about that
hypothetical simulation. It's a choice between "the universe is the way it
is + undetectable simulation" and "the universe is the way it is". The
second one is the simplest.

_________________________________________________________________
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