Re: Is there evidence for, "Humans are going to create an AI," to be a probable hypothesis?

From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Tue Oct 23 2007 - 19:22:44 MDT

William Pearson wrote:
> I can't currently get around the problem that we haven't had any
> instances of this happening.

This is known as the "availability heuristic":

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/09/availability.html

You are trying to apply it in a way I've called the "absurdity heuristic":

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/09/absurdity-heuri.html

Also humans are a counterexample. If it seems to you that the brain
is too magical to be duplicated by ordinary science, or that evolution
is too powerful for human intelligence to match, that's a whole
separate problem; but see also:

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/mysterious-answ.html
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/making-history-.html
http://jurvetson.blogspot.com/2006/07/dichotomy-of-design-and-evolution.html 

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://intelligence.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

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