From: Vladimir Nesov (robotact@gmail.com)
Date: Sat Mar 08 2008 - 02:12:30 MST
On Fri, Mar 7, 2008 at 10:52 PM, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
<sentience@pobox.com> wrote:
>
> If you flip a fair quantum coin, have your exoself generate 100
> separated isomorphic copies of you conditional on the coin coming up
> heads, then, when (all of) you are about to look at the coin, should
> your subjective anticipation of seeing "heads" be 1:1 or 100:1?
>
P(I will observe heads)=99%. P(heads) is meaningless, probability is
about what rational agent observes, about events with which it
interacts. If we have an external observer, it's P(external observer
observes heads)=50%, and P(heads) is a useful shorthand for P(external
observer observes heads) when it doesn't confuse things, which it does
in this case.
-- Vladimir Nesov robotact@gmail.com
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