# Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox

From: Lee Corbin (lcorbin@rawbw.com)
Date: Sat Mar 08 2008 - 21:53:55 MST

Consider the case now after five days have passed. We compute
that the expectation is that just one of you will still be
alive, because every day 100/101 are eliminated, whether or
not they saw an H or a T.

What will this one remember? It's possible that he will remember
TTTTT, but that is very unlikely. That would only occur if each
day the 100/101 death toll struck only those who had received
"heads". The chances are (100/101)^5, which is close to .95,
that he would remember HHHHH.

And if this continues, then a "T" will crop up in a long sequence
of mostly H's about one time in one hundred and one.

Therefore, as before, the subjective probability is 100/101
that on each trial you'll see an H.

William writes

> Isn't there only a 64% chance anyone will be alive after one
> iteration? And after 5 iterations only a 10.2% chance that
> anyone will be alive?

Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning and arithmetic. Can you
explain?

Lee

> Unless it is not 100/101 chance and you are somehow coupling the split
> universes together so you can be sure not to kill more than 100 copies
> of yourself.
>
> Will Pearson

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