**From:** Lee Corbin (*lcorbin@rawbw.com*)

**Date:** Sat Mar 08 2008 - 21:53:55 MST

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I had written

Consider the case now after five days have passed. We compute

that the expectation is that just one of you will still be

alive, because every day 100/101 are eliminated, whether or

not they saw an H or a T.

What will this one remember? It's possible that he will remember

TTTTT, but that is very unlikely. That would only occur if each

day the 100/101 death toll struck only those who had received

"heads". The chances are (100/101)^5, which is close to .95,

that he would remember HHHHH.

And if this continues, then a "T" will crop up in a long sequence

of mostly H's about one time in one hundred and one.

Therefore, as before, the subjective probability is 100/101

that on each trial you'll see an H.

William writes

*> Isn't there only a 64% chance anyone will be alive after one
*

*> iteration? And after 5 iterations only a 10.2% chance that
*

*> anyone will be alive?
*

Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning and arithmetic. Can you

explain?

Lee

*> Unless it is not 100/101 chance and you are somehow coupling the split
*

*> universes together so you can be sure not to kill more than 100 copies
*

*> of yourself.
*

*>
*

*> Will Pearson
*

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