Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox

From: Lee Corbin (
Date: Sat Mar 08 2008 - 21:53:55 MST

I had written

    Consider the case now after five days have passed. We compute
    that the expectation is that just one of you will still be
    alive, because every day 100/101 are eliminated, whether or
    not they saw an H or a T.

    What will this one remember? It's possible that he will remember
    TTTTT, but that is very unlikely. That would only occur if each
    day the 100/101 death toll struck only those who had received
    "heads". The chances are (100/101)^5, which is close to .95,
    that he would remember HHHHH.

    And if this continues, then a "T" will crop up in a long sequence
    of mostly H's about one time in one hundred and one.

    Therefore, as before, the subjective probability is 100/101
    that on each trial you'll see an H.

William writes

> Isn't there only a 64% chance anyone will be alive after one
> iteration? And after 5 iterations only a 10.2% chance that
> anyone will be alive?

Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning and arithmetic. Can you


> Unless it is not 100/101 chance and you are somehow coupling the split
> universes together so you can be sure not to kill more than 100 copies
> of yourself.
> Will Pearson

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