**From:** William Pearson (*wil.pearson@gmail.com*)

**Date:** Sun Mar 09 2008 - 04:43:12 MDT

**Next message:**John K Clark: "Re: Is a Person One or Many?"**Previous message:**Stathis Papaioannou: "Re: Separate Copies Contribute Separately to One's Runtime"**In reply to:**Lee Corbin: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Next in thread:**Mike Dougherty: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Reply:**Mike Dougherty: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Reply:**Lee Corbin: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

On 09/03/2008, Lee Corbin <lcorbin@rawbw.com> wrote:

*> I had written
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*>
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*>
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*> Consider the case now after five days have passed. We compute
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*> that the expectation is that just one of you will still be
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*> alive, because every day 100/101 are eliminated, whether or
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*> not they saw an H or a T.
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*>
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*>
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*> What will this one remember? It's possible that he will remember
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*> TTTTT, but that is very unlikely. That would only occur if each
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*> day the 100/101 death toll struck only those who had received
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*> "heads". The chances are (100/101)^5, which is close to .95,
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*> that he would remember HHHHH.
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*>
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*> And if this continues, then a "T" will crop up in a long sequence
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*> of mostly H's about one time in one hundred and one.
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*>
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*> Therefore, as before, the subjective probability is 100/101
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*> that on each trial you'll see an H.
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*>
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*>
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*> William writes
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*>
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*>
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*> > Isn't there only a 64% chance anyone will be alive after one
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*> > iteration? And after 5 iterations only a 10.2% chance that
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*> > anyone will be alive?
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*>
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*>
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*> Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning and arithmetic. Can you
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*> explain?
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*>
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Chance one person will die 100/101

Chance that everyone will die on one day (100/101)^101 = 0.366

So the chance that at least one person will survive a single day =

1-.366 = 0.634

So the chance that at least one person will be alive after 5 days =

0.634^5 = 0.102

Am I going wrong somewhere?

Will Pearson

**Next message:**John K Clark: "Re: Is a Person One or Many?"**Previous message:**Stathis Papaioannou: "Re: Separate Copies Contribute Separately to One's Runtime"**In reply to:**Lee Corbin: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Next in thread:**Mike Dougherty: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Reply:**Mike Dougherty: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Reply:**Lee Corbin: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

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