**From:** Mike Dougherty (*msd001@gmail.com*)

**Date:** Sun Mar 09 2008 - 14:34:35 MDT

**Next message:**Matt Mahoney: "A formal measure of subjective experience"**Previous message:**John K Clark: "Re: Is a Person One or Many?"**In reply to:**William Pearson: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Next in thread:**Lee Corbin: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

On Sun, Mar 9, 2008 at 6:43 AM, William Pearson <wil.pearson@gmail.com>

wrote:

*> Chance one person will die 100/101
*

*> Chance that everyone will die on one day (100/101)^101 = 0.366
*

*> So the chance that at least one person will survive a single day =
*

*> 1-.366 = 0.634
*

*> So the chance that at least one person will be alive after 5 days =
*

*> 0.634^5 = 0.102
*

*>
*

I didn't follow how there is any probability of those 100 copies in the

event of H ever seeing anything other than H. The problem seems to be

mixing the ideas of objective probability we use to measure the observers

and the subjective probability that each copy would be measuring their coin

flips.

Kind of reminds me of this: (found via google)

http://www.senior2senior.org/mathprob.html

(I'm confident this group will easily reckon the accounting error)

**Next message:**Matt Mahoney: "A formal measure of subjective experience"**Previous message:**John K Clark: "Re: Is a Person One or Many?"**In reply to:**William Pearson: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Next in thread:**Lee Corbin: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

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