AGI investment (Re: What are "AGI-first'ers" expecting AGI will teach us about FAI?)

From: Nick Tarleton (
Date: Sat Apr 12 2008 - 23:09:42 MDT

On Sat, Apr 12, 2008 at 9:58 PM, Matt Mahoney <> wrote:
> I believe it is easier to analyze threats in the context of specific
> proposals. My proposal for competitive message distribution at
> is quite different from the usual attempts
> to build something resembling a human mind. I believe that AGI will emerge in
> the form of a large collection of narrow domain experts and an infrastructure
> that routes messages to the right experts. I estimate that it will cost USD
> $1 quadrillion and take 30 years to reach parity with carbon-based
> intelligence. I argue that it will be built because AGI is worth that much
> and the system provides economic incentives for people to contribute.

Global economic output over the next 30 years, at constant growth,
will be $4.6 quadrillion (my calculation from CIA World Factbook
numbers). That nearly a quarter of the world economy will be invested
in AGI over that time is hideously implausible.

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