Re: [sl4] giant planets ignation - one more existential risk

From: Stuart Armstrong (
Date: Tue Dec 09 2008 - 03:28:48 MST

>> I estimate that probability of teoretical possibility of ignition of
>> giant planet is arround 1 per cent.
> Over what period of time? And how come it hasn't happened yet --
> Jupiter's been there for billions of years without igniting.

A narrow aplication of the anthropic principle gets rid of the
argument that we shouldn't worry about whether its happened yet or not
- if life evolves anywhere, it would have to evolve in a solar system
where the gas giants don't periodically go nuclear.

But I second the question about how these probabilities are arrived
at, and over what period of time - and add, what is the astronomical
evidence? Gas giants igniting should be the kind of signal that can be
detected over large distances.


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