From: Ben Goertzel (ben@goertzel.org)
Date: Tue May 14 2002 - 23:00:10 MDT
> > Prediction: April 28, 2005.
>
> Not to be too blunt about it, but I think either you're half-nuts
> or you're
> just playing around ;>
Well obviously I was a little too blunt about it, sorry! I'll tone down my
rhetoric in future.
I'm at least 23.233445% nuts myself, so who am I to talk ;->
Most people think the Singularity itself is a crazy idea, so it may seem
absurd for me to get so hyped up about a 2005 prediction when I think a 2010
prediction is plausible (though not amazingly likely).
As noted before, I think the passage from near-human-level to
slightly-superhuman-level AI may take a few years, and I think that
slightly-superhuman-level AI may be needed for anything like a hard takeoff.
That is why I think 2010 is a fair lower bound even if Novamente or some
other current AI project goes extremely well.
-- Ben G
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