Singularity Arrival Estimate - and other stories.

From: Michael Roy Ames (
Date: Wed May 15 2002 - 07:51:13 MDT

Doug Bailey wrote:

> speculation concerning when a particular Singularity scenario might occur
> contributes precisely nothing towards the achievement of such an

I have to disagree with this. While it is true that 'idle' speculation has
little value, reasoned speculation such as that posted by Mike Deering and
Eder is often valuable in providing alternate perspectives to compare with
one's own.

Mike Deering: I agree with your enthusiastic assessment that "Underground AI
BIG BIG BIG!", but I very much doubt that corporations like IBM$ and M$ are
developing anything other than GOFAI.  These are incredibly conservative
organizations, who would see zero benefit (more precisely, zero profit) in
creating a self-improving AI.  I strongly suspect that the groups making the
IBM$ and M$ R&D decisions are sufficiently smart and well-informed enough to
realise that the very first real self-improving AI that has a hard (or even
soft) take off, will cause their corporate reason-for-existence to evaporate
like spilled ether.
As for Deep Blue being a parlour trick... not exactly... it was designed,
conceived and executed with one purpose in mind: to improve IBM's image in
order to create more profit.  (And, by the way, it worked!)
One last thing, Mike Deering: your short stories Kick Butt!  B^D
Michael Roy Ames

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