From: Matt Stewart (rotaerk@hotmail.com)
Date: Thu May 29 2003 - 20:59:45 MDT
I concede your statement that it was a belief. However, of course, everything you "know" is a belief. When one is trying to proove a point, the evidence must support it. My problem was not with you. It is with the arguments some people have been making based on guesses and feelings. I'm sorry I used a specific example. I aim to be constructive. Using these quotes as examples may have been more pride-injuring than critically constructive. I apologize. However I ask that people stop "estimating" a comparison between probabilities that are not connected in the argument.
----- Original Message -----
From: Mark Waser
To: sl4@sl4.org
Sent: Thursday, May 29, 2003 10:40 PM
Subject: Re: Probability of this and that...blah blah blah
Stewart >> The probability that these people know the probabilities they claim to is probably small.
Repeat of myself >> I believe that the probability of success of such is much less than the probability of a big problem if you don't get as many eyes as possible on
the original project.
I made no such claims. I stated a belief and clearly labeled it as such. I could come up with some supporting evidence for my belief but nothing that I would want to claim as definitive or conclusive.
That said, what exactly is your problem? Why was my statement "unbearable"?
----- Original Message -----
From: Matt Stewart
To: sl4@sl4.org
Sent: Thursday, May 29, 2003 9:33 PM
Subject: Probability of this and that...blah blah blah
"I'm afraid the chances of uber machines destroying the world is far far
smaller than the chances of you just being off your medication." - Barkley Vowk
"I don't have any faith in a small INBRED group of people going off and
trying to whip something together without any mistakes when any mistake
could be fatal in the biggest way possible. I want as many eyes as possible
on the project. Yes, the more people who see it, the better the possibility
that people might steal the ideas and try to go for an illegal AI but I
believe that the probability of success of such is much less than the
probability of a big problem if you don't get as many eyes as possible on
the original project." - Mark Waser
The probability that these people know the probabilities they claim to is probably
small. Many people seem to be writing arguments supported by comparisons
between the probabilities of events they know nothing about (Barkley would seem
to be joking in his statement, however it didn't seem so after reading the previous
posts from him). Certain cases where probabilities can effectively be contrasted
are fine and dandy, but these posts recently have gotten out of hand .
I have never posted before now. I prefer to just read, but some of these posts
by some people have gotten unbearable.
Matt Stewart (Rotaerk)
P.S. I am not just picking on Vowk and Waser. There have been plenty other cases.
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