From: James Martin Luther (james@jamesmartinluther.com)
Date: Tue Mar 02 2004 - 03:07:52 MST
On Feb 28, 2004, at 11:27 PM, Yan King Yin wrote:
> My point is, *IF* the singularity does not happen, then
> a very natural scenario would be to replace human jobs
> with AIs starting from the computationally easy ones
> first, and gradually progressing from there. For example
> we'll see fast food preparation being done by robots,
> which is actually feasible with 2004 technology. Also it
> would be the reasonable thing to do because of increased
> efficiency, cost-efficiency, hygiene, etc.
AI and orgs using AI as a competitive advantage will not deplete their
own source of power.
Human production and consumption through employment are an essential
factor of the early development of the AI economy. It is likely that
AIs will help mitigate economic forces such unemployment during periods
of system shock, just as computerized analysis and modeling is widely
used during the financial crises of today.
> Continuing the assumption that there won't be a hard
> takeoff, jobs will become very scarce and laissez-faire
> capitalism may not be fast enough to create enough new
> jobs for the population. Then we'll get into a situation
> where AI cannot be developed because of social problems.
If capitalism isn't fast enough to deal with the forces set loose by
the AI, a successor will emerge which is.
Social problems have not often destroyed previous productivity
revolutions faster than they could be solved by the benefits of those
same revolutions. In certain cases, one economy is temporarily hobbled
by new forces, giving a superior (but weaker) one the safety to take
flight and teach everyone how to win.
Consider those economies which could not embrace industrialization
quickly enough, as well as those which embraced it too quickly. Certain
information economies will learn to thrive during the next wave,
creating the singularity in the process.
- JML
> So the soft takeoff is also problematic....
>
> YKY
>
>
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