**From:** Lee Corbin (*lcorbin@rawbw.com*)

**Date:** Sun Mar 09 2008 - 19:19:49 MDT

**Next message:**Thomas McCabe: "Re: A formal measure of subjective experience"**Previous message:**Lee Corbin: "Re: Objective Meaning Must Exhibit Isomorphism"**In reply to:**William Pearson: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Next in thread:**William Pearson: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Reply:**William Pearson: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

William writes

*> [Lee wrote]
*

*>
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*>> >> Consider the case now after five days have passed. We compute
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*>> >> that the expectation is that just one of you will still be alive
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*>> >> abecause every day 100/101 are eliminated, whether or
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*>> >> not they saw an H or a T.
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*>> >>
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*>> >> What will this one remember? It's possible that he will remember
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*>> >> TTTTT, but that is very unlikely. That would only occur if each
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*>> >> day the 100/101 death toll struck only those who had received
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*>> >> "heads". The chances are (100/101)^5, which is close to .95,
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*>> >> that he would remember HHHHH.
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*>> >>
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*>> >> And if this continues, then a "T" will crop up in a long sequence
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*>> >> of mostly H's about one time in one hundred and one.
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*>> >>
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*>> >> Therefore, as before, the subjective probability is 100/101
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*>> >> that on each trial you'll see an H.
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*>> >
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*>> William writes
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*>>
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*>> > Isn't there only a 64% chance anyone will be alive after one
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*>> > iteration? And after 5 iterations only a 10.2% chance that
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*>> > anyone will be alive?
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*>>
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*>> Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning and arithmetic. Can you
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*>> explain?
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*>
*

*> Chance one person will die 100/101
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*> Chance that everyone will die on one day (100/101)^101 = 0.366
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*> So the chance that at least one person will survive a single day =
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*> 1-.366 = 0.634
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*> So the chance that at least one person will be alive after 5 days =
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*> 0.634^5 = 0.102
*

Ah, I was computing the expectation, i.e., the expected number of

instances alive. You are computing the chance that at least one

instance of the person will be alive.

Lee

**Next message:**Thomas McCabe: "Re: A formal measure of subjective experience"**Previous message:**Lee Corbin: "Re: Objective Meaning Must Exhibit Isomorphism"**In reply to:**William Pearson: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Next in thread:**William Pearson: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Reply:**William Pearson: "Re: Eliezer's Coin Flipping Duplicates Paradox"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

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